Staying or leaving

Believing members often assume that someone who stops believing is gone. The 2011 survey found otherwise. Of 3,086 people who no longer believed the Church was true, 44% were still attending at least sometimes, and 20% attended every week. Many were serving in callings. Most had told almost no one.

Who stays

Using regression analysis, the survey's authors asked which factors separated the disbelievers who stayed active from those who left. The strongest predictors were not about doctrine at all:

Factor	Effect on staying active
Years of prior activity	More years, more likely to stay: about 0.8% per year
Age	Younger disbelievers more likely to stay, once years of activity are accounted for
Education	Each level of education adds about 3.4%
Leadership callings	Each prior leadership calling adds about 2.4%
Married	12% more likely to stay than single
Male	8% more likely to stay than female
Income	Slightly more likely to leave at higher incomes
Served a mission	No significant effect

The authors were candid that the model explained only about a quarter of the variation. Staying is mostly about what a person has invested and who they are married to, not about which historical issue broke their shelf.

Which reasons push people out

Some reasons for disbelief did predict leaving. The strongest was a general one: the more issues a person rated as major, the more likely they were to be gone. Among specific issues, losing belief in the doctrine itself made a person about a quarter more likely to have left. DNA and the Book of Mormon, the Mountain Meadows Massacre, changes in the temple ceremony, and a sense of being led elsewhere by the Spirit each added something.

Which reasons, surprisingly, do not

A few issues that ranked high as reasons for disbelief were actually associated with staying: polygamy, studying history in general, and the priesthood ban. The authors' guess was that these are the issues on which the Church has changed, and that members who weighted them heavily may have read the changes as hope. The treatment of women and of gay members, two of the most-cited reasons, had no measurable effect either way, perhaps because some members leave over them while others stay to change them.

Why they stay: in their own words

In February 2014 this site asked readers who had stayed active after losing belief what kept them there. The original post and its comments are preserved. The answers clustered around family, especially a believing spouse and children; community; a desire to change the Church from inside; and the simple fact that leaving costs more than staying.

What staying costs

Disbelievers who stayed active reported significantly higher mental and spiritual costs than those who left, and higher costs with their spouses. Those who left reported higher costs with parents, siblings, and friends. There is no free option. Respondents who stayed described exhaustion and inauthenticity; those who left described grief and isolation.

If you are deciding

There is no right answer that applies to everyone, and this site does not offer one. There are people and communities for both paths, and for the long stretch in between. The resources page lists them, including Mormon Stories 141 to 142 on staying and Mormon Stories 157 to 159 on keeping a marriage through it.